Economy In Turmoil And Bailout Plans Adrift
Professor Joseph A. Grundfest, Co-Director of the Arthur and Tony Rembe Rock Center for Corporate Governance, is quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle in a story about the current financial crisis:
Detroit automakers are in line behind governors who are in line behind banks, seeking emergency aid from Washington. Nearly $8 trillion in federal commitments is already out the door, and half of the $700 billion October rescue package has been spent. The economic downturn is accelerating. And nobody is really in charge.
Among a lame-duck Bush administration, a lame-duck Congress, and a president-elect, Barack Obama, who has no legal authority to act and is reluctant to get entangled with the Bush team, Washington's political vacuum has left policy adrift at the most critical economic period in a generation.
"The world is dealing with an unprecedented series of economic events," said Joseph Grundfest, a professor of law and business at Stanford University and co-director of the Rock Center on Corporate Governance. "Anybody who stands up and says, 'Look, this is what you should be doing,' not only lacks humility, but also lacks a real appreciation of the intellectual difficulty of these circumstances. Because if the answer was so clearly obvious, everybody would have it."
The markets have judged some steps effective, Grundfest said. These include buying mortgage debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which lowered mortgage interest rates; injecting capital into banks, which prevented them from imploding; and backstopping federal money market funds to stop a panic.
"But the reality is the effects are not large enough," said Grundfest. "There is a massive global repricing of certain assets. It's real estate values coming down not just in the United States but around the world, and a massive de-leveraging, not just in the United States but around the world."
"Part of the unfortunate reality is that if real estate prices are going to re-equilibrate to a lower level that is significantly lower than the peak, it is mathematically impossible to have that happen without having homeowners and lenders lose a lot of wealth," Grundfest said. "To the extent that people think government policy can prevent that from happening, the only way you can do that is by having the government say, 'OK, you lenders and homeowners, you won't lose the wealth, we the government will lose the wealth.' And that means that all the rest of us will lose the wealth. But the wealth will be lost."