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Reading Tea Leaves On Obamacare's Survival

Publication Date: 
March 29, 2012
Source: 
The Atlantic Wire
Author: 
John Hudson

Professor Henry T. Greely is quoted in the following article by the Atlantic Wire's John Hudson predicting the outcome of the Supreme Court's ruling on the Obama administration's health care law.

This week's Obamacare oral arguments may be over, but the Supreme Court isn't expected to issue its opinion in the case until June. That means legal experts have months to venture their own guesses about whether the court will take an ax to the President's signature legislative achievement. Here's what they're telling publications around the country. What's extraordinary is how varied the opinions are from scholars and legal experts of every stripe:

Henry T. Greely, Stanford professor of health law and policy [Los Angeles Times]

Right now I'd say it looks like there are clearly four justices in favor, three opposed and [Justice Anthony M.] Kennedy somewhere in between, and Chief Justice [John G.] Roberts with leeway to go either way.... I think on the individual mandate the chances are better that it will survive than go down. I would be surprised if Justice Kennedy wanted one of his most memorable acts to be this. Is this how he wants to be remembered? Look at his record on gay issues. I think he cares about his legacy.