Natural Gas, Uncertainty, and Climate Policy in the US Electric Power Sector

Details

Author(s):
  • John Bistline
Publish Date:
2014
Publication Title:
Energy Policy
Format:
Journal Article
Citation(s):
  • J​​ohn E. Bistline, Natural Gas, Uncertainty, and Climate Policy in the US Electric Power Sector, 74 Energy Policy 433 (2014).
Related Organization(s):

Abstract

This paper investigates how uncertainties related to natural gas prices and potential climate policies may influence capacity investments, utilization, and emissions in US electricity markets. Using a two-stage stochastic programming approach, model results suggest that ​​climate policies are stronger drivers of greenhouse gas emission trajectories than new natural gas supplies. The dynamics of learning and irreversibility may give rise to an investment climate where strategic delay is optimal. Hedging strategies are shown to be sensitive to the specification of probability distributions for climate policy and natural gas prices, highlighting the important role of uncertainty quantification in future research. The paper also illustrates how this stochastic modeling framework could be used to quantify the value of limiting methane emissions from natural gas production.